We often overestimate our abilities, and overestimate the abilities of others who exude confidence. Are we correct in thinking the athlete who radiates confidence must be competent in her/his sport? The salesman who speaks with extensive knowledge and confidence must know what they are talking about, right?
These scenarios are often manifestations of the illusion of confidence.
Confidence is often considered a “true” signal of the extent of one’s memory, knowledge, skill, and ability. However, confidence is often misleading and not congruent with ability. This type of unwarranted confidence leads to “epistemic irrationality,” or more commonly known as simply delusion and self-deception.
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true confidence whispers
Oh, Alistair: Lovely, lovely
Whispering here
Great comment Alistair!
Here’s a relevant quote from a book called Pompeii by Robert Harris:
“What was leadership, after all, but the blind choice of one route over another and the confident pretence that the decision was based on reason?”